Expert-Conversion

0x3e7150cfeab7a0ad9d429d9c2cafc6c830adf97b

Skill vs luck

Expert-Conversion on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$269. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Expert-Conversion: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3e7150cfeab7a0ad9d429d9c2cafc6c830adf97b. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Expert-Conversion: −$269 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$269
return —
Settled bets
1
$0 staked
Won
0.0%
95% range 0%–79%
Mostly bets on
crypto

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 3
−$269
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.5% (2,471 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 14 BUY No @ 99¢
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?
 Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? ↗ $7.4K

All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793343609, computed 2026-10-30 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793343609 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed