Single-Principle

0x3b63b79d5d00a254ff0105792e04984f64654acd

Skill vs luck

Single-Principle on Polymarket: 16 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 64%–97%) · profit +$1.4K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Single-Principle: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3b63b79d5d00a254ff0105792e04984f64654acd. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Single-Principle: +$1.4K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 64%–97%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$1.4K

return +1.4%

Settled bets

$100K staked

Won

87.5%

95% range 64%–97%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 3: +$197
Sep 3 – Sep 18: +$30
Sep 18 – Oct 3: +$1.1K
Oct 3 – Oct 18: +$25
Oct 18 – Nov 2: +$19

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +2.2% (2,625 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Nov 2	BUY TheMongolz @ 99.8¢ Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A ↗	$16K
Oct 29	SELL FaZe @ 99.9¢ Counter-Strike: B8 vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs	Counter-Strike: B8 vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs	$14K
Oct 14	BUY Solary @ 99.9¢ LoL: Anubis Gaming vs Solary - Game 1 Winner	LoL: Anubis Gaming vs Solary - Game 1 Winner	$10K
Oct 6	BUY Estral Esports @ 99.9¢ LoL: Estral Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner	LoL: Estral Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner	$5.0K
Oct 6	BUY TLN Pirates @ 99.85¢ LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	$5.5K
Oct 6	BUY Frites Esports Club @ 99.9¢ LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Frites Esports Club - Game 3 Winner	LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Frites Esports Club - Game 3 Winner	$1.6K
Sep 20	BUY Yakult Brothers @ 99.82¢ Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner	$8.2K
Sep 19	BUY Movistar KOI @ 97¢ Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)	Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) ↗	$1.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793602824, computed 2026-11-02 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793602824 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed