Shadowy-Incarnation-Reserve
Skill vs luck
Shadowy-Incarnation-Reserve on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$2.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Shadowy-Incarnation-Reserve: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3835957ad7188313391213e8647baaf4a2ed3493. Data CC BY 4.0.
Shadowy-Incarnation-Reserve: +$2.8K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$1.2K
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$4.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Afghanistan @ 63¢ | Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Xingtong Chen
@ 51¢
WTT Champions: Xingtong Chen vs Margaryta Pesotska |
WTT Champions: Xingtong Chen vs Margaryta Pesotska | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 59¢
Greece vs. England: Both Teams to Score |
Greece vs. England: Both Teams to Score | $1.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.