Muffled-Pelican
Skill vs luck
Muffled-Pelican on Polymarket: 14 settled bets · won 64% (95% range 39%–84%) · profit +$3.2K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Muffled-Pelican: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x33bcb6e9bd44be709122b2940c55e34f1a7e37dc. Data CC BY 4.0.
Muffled-Pelican: +$3.2K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 64% (95% range 39%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 14 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$400
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$3.4K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$827
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$5.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Team Spirit @ 57¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No
@ 99.69¢
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-31? |
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-31? | $3.0K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Over
@ 54¢
Game 2: Duration Over/Under 31:30 min? |
Game 2: Duration Over/Under 31:30 min? | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 6.5 |
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 6.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Under
@ 52¢
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5 |
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Yes
@ 25¢
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? |
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? | $1.3K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Over
@ 43¢
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 49.5 |
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 49.5 | $1.7K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Cowboys @ 66¢ | Commanders vs. Cowboys ↗ | $2.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.