Nervous-Salt
Skill vs luck
Nervous-Salt on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$239. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Nervous-Salt: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x30e1ffee3ea0fbd1e904bc715cb4504dead2510b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Nervous-Salt: +$239 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$239
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY Celtics @ 83¢ | Celtics vs. Pistons ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 20 | SELL Celtics @ 74¢ | Celtics vs. Pistons ↗ | $1.5K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?