Messy-Spring

0x2f9a5fae73827b49c39a6a98598c905fb7147ef9

Skill vs luck

Messy-Spring on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$2.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Messy-Spring: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2f9a5fae73827b49c39a6a98598c905fb7147ef9. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Messy-Spring: +$2.2K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$2.2K
return +203.0%
Settled bets
1
$1.1K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 21%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 18 – Nov 2
+$2.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +2.2% (2,625 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 31 BUY Yes @ 33¢
Will FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?
 Will FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? ↗ $1.1K

All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793602824, computed 2026-11-02 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793602824 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed