Tiny-Equality
Skill vs luck
Tiny-Equality on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$60. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Tiny-Equality: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2e617f2cb474acaba820030e4819fe92148519bd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Tiny-Equality: +$60 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$60
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes
@ 95¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? | $2.1K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 91¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? ↗ | $3.4K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Yes @ 95¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.