First-Port-Moose
Skill vs luck
First-Port-Moose on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$6.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “First-Port-Moose: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2e53759c0de92b0ae1e422ffdfa1a4f34e41bfcf. Data CC BY 4.0.
First-Port-Moose: −$6.8K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$6.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 80¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $9.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes @ 57¢ | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 12 | SELL Yes @ 87¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.7K |
| Sep 15 | SELL Yes @ 87¢ | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? ↗ | $7.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?