Neat-Brushfire
Skill vs luck
Neat-Brushfire on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit +$19K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Neat-Brushfire: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2ce8505aa641791eb8460f6ac6bf5c0511e34527. Data CC BY 4.0.
Neat-Brushfire: +$19K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$1.7K
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- +$3.1K
- Sep 17 – Oct 1
- +$746
- Oct 1 – Oct 15
- +$12K
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- +$4.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Pacers @ 51¢ | Spread: 76ers (-7.5) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Over
@ 49¢
Rams vs. Raiders: O/U 48.5 |
Rams vs. Raiders: O/U 48.5 | $3.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY
@ 29¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal AND Ningbo Open, Qualification: Anhelina Kalinina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal AND Ningbo Open, Qualification: Anhelina Kalinina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | $9.7K |
| Oct 18 | BUY
@ 25¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal AND Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Emerson Jones |
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal AND Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Emerson Jones | $4.8K |
| Oct 18 | BUY
@ 25¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal AND Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Emerson Jones |
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal AND Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Emerson Jones | $4.8K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Yulia Putintseva
@ 55¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Zeynep Sonmez |
Wuhan Tennis Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Zeynep Sonmez | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yibing Wu @ 51¢ | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng ↗ | $7.7K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Alexandre Muller
@ 67¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller | $7.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.