Troubled-Formal-Dynamics
Skill vs luck
Troubled-Formal-Dynamics on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Troubled-Formal-Dynamics: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2cda6b948b0c0bb5d300094a1abcaa9aded0bc6e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Troubled-Formal-Dynamics: −$1.2K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Over @ 61¢ | Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 57¢ | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 57¢
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score |
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score | $2.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Over
@ 56¢
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 |
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 | $2.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?