Burdensome-Disarmament
Skill vs luck
Burdensome-Disarmament on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$20. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Burdensome-Disarmament: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x269ced0ede348b4b3f8fd8470b19f65508f79017. Data CC BY 4.0.
Burdensome-Disarmament: −$20 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$20
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY
@ 77¢
Nets vs. Cavaliers AND Pelicans vs. Nuggets |
Nets vs. Cavaliers AND Pelicans vs. Nuggets | $2.5K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Nuggets @ 80¢ | Pelicans vs. Nuggets ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Nuggets @ 81¢ | Pelicans vs. Nuggets ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 90¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $14K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?