Key-Software-First
Skill vs luck
Key-Software-First on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Key-Software-First: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x255abd43960bf86a750e47bdb578740e33663ea3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Key-Software-First: −$2.3K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- −$2.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Bulls @ 75¢ | Knicks vs. Bulls ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Grizzlies @ 99.9¢ | Grizzlies vs. Jazz ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | Pistons vs. 76ers ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Jazz @ 66¢ | Lakers vs. Jazz ↗ | $1.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.