Coarse-Liner
Skill vs luck
Coarse-Liner on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$189. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Coarse-Liner: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x22e1cceb19dac27fb88a41e33596938fcbe380bf. Data CC BY 4.0.
Coarse-Liner: +$189 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$32
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- +$221
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | SELL No @ 99.8¢ | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September? | $1.0K |
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September? | $5.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.