Loose-Siege-Autumn
Skill vs luck
Loose-Siege-Autumn on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 17% (95% range 3%–56%) · profit −$2.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Loose-Siege-Autumn: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x21a13ab7978a510c2be4ef01354e7cd0a808314d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Loose-Siege-Autumn: −$2.9K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 17% (95% range 3%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$2.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Team Yandex @ 69¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY LYON @ 44¢ | LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Karmine Corp @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $4.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Movistar KOI @ 39¢ | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Nemiga @ 50¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA (BO5) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs ↗ | $1.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.