Aged-Pacemaker
Skill vs luck
Aged-Pacemaker on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$838. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Aged-Pacemaker: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x207346fa33d896d4e7009a4a265ac319b811385b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Aged-Pacemaker: −$838 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$2.2K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$6.4K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$5.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 65¢ | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev ↗ | $5.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Elena Rybakina @ 43¢ | US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina ↗ | $4.8K |
| Sep 12 | BUY
@ 31¢
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 AND 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 AND 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5 AND Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 AND FC Augsburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 AND RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5 AND Crystal Palace FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5 AND Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-12? |
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 AND 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 AND 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5 AND Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 AND FC Augsburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 AND RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5 AND Crystal Palace FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5 AND Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-12? | $4.8K |
| Aug 30 | BUY
@ 30¢
US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta AND US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic AND US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics AND US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino AND US Open ATP: Sho Shimabukuro vs Arthur Rinderknech |
US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta AND US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic AND US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics AND US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino AND US Open ATP: Sho Shimabukuro vs Arthur Rinderknech | $4.8K |
| Aug 26 | BUY
@ 40¢
US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov AND US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris AND US Open, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Christopher O'Connell |
US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov AND US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris AND US Open, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Christopher O'Connell | $4.9K |
| Aug 24 | BUY Juan Carlos Prado
@ 45¢
US Open, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Tomas Barrios |
US Open, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Tomas Barrios | $2.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?