Self-Assured-Doctrine
Skill vs luck
Self-Assured-Doctrine on Polymarket: 22 settled bets · won 5% (95% range 1%–22%) · profit −$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Self-Assured-Doctrine: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1b6de094aa5371b056a911aa8c7c66fc612e2f1a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Self-Assured-Doctrine: −$2.3K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 5% (95% range 1%–22%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- −$2.3K
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- −$23
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$3
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
AS Monaco FC vs. SC Freiburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5 |
AS Monaco FC vs. SC Freiburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Austria vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 |
Austria vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 | $1.4K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Norway vs. Denmark: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Norway vs. Denmark: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.9K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Andorra vs. Malta: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Andorra vs. Malta: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $3.8K |
| Sep 23 | SELL Over
@ 99.46¢
DPR Korea vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
DPR Korea vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $3.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
OFI vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
OFI vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.5K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 39¢
PFK Levski Sofia vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
PFK Levski Sofia vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?