Untrue-Parade
Skill vs luck
Untrue-Parade on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit −$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Untrue-Parade: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x191b9bbd75bba2259eacfbdf8f3378f074d65b67. Data CC BY 4.0.
Untrue-Parade: −$1.5K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- +$3.3K
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- −$6.3K
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Karen Khachanov @ 58¢ | Almaty Open: Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Darja Suvirdjonkova
@ 55¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova |
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova | $1.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 68¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $5.0K |
| Sep 13 | BUY Under
@ 44¢
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? |
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | $2.3K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Cloud9
@ 86¢
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner | $2.5K |
| Aug 27 | BUY Golovina
@ 75¢
Set 2 Winner: Golovina vs Bulgaru |
Set 2 Winner: Golovina vs Bulgaru | $1.5K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?