Soupy-Aquarium

0x1905f726ae942547f71ce044e35ad41a68ead16f

Skill vs luck

Soupy-Aquarium on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 20% (95% range 4%–62%) · profit −$2.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Soupy-Aquarium: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1905f726ae942547f71ce044e35ad41a68ead16f. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Soupy-Aquarium: −$2.2K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 4%–62%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$2.2K
return −43.6%
Settled bets
5
$5.1K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 4%–62%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 18 – Nov 2
−$2.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +2.2% (2,625 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Nov 1 SELL @ 99.91¢
Spread: CD Eldense (-1.5) AND Burgos CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 AND Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) AND Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 AND Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?
 Spread: CD Eldense (-1.5) AND Burgos CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 AND Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) AND Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 AND Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01? $3.5K
Oct 31 SELL Bilibili Gaming @ 99.9¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner
 LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ $2.1K
Oct 31 BUY LYON @ 74¢
LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
 LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ $2.1K
Oct 31 SELL LOS @ 99.9¢
LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
 LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner ↗ $6.0K
Oct 31 BUY Movistar KOI @ 20¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
 LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ $1.9K
Oct 31 BUY Movistar KOI @ 65¢
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)
 Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) $1.0K

All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793602824, computed 2026-11-02 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793602824 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed