Yellow-Bother
Skill vs luck
Yellow-Bother on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Yellow-Bother: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x165ed327dd594bfe95a5a9836cad385813cff5aa. Data CC BY 4.0.
Yellow-Bother: +$1.0K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 83¢
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? |
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | $2.8K |
| Sep 5 | BUY No
@ 73¢
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? |
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?