Definitive-Reject
Skill vs luck
Definitive-Reject on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$2.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Definitive-Reject: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x163eff4d251df4bfc95c49f4d90cd1bf224edc5b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Definitive-Reject: +$2.2K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$2.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Grizzlies @ 54¢ | Grizzlies vs. Jazz ↗ | $5.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Timberwolves @ 60¢ | Raptors vs. Timberwolves ↗ | $4.8K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Knicks @ 70¢ | Magic vs. Knicks ↗ | $5.6K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?