Fine-Capitulation
Skill vs luck
Fine-Capitulation on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$15K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fine-Capitulation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x15a681d447124c90dbd85be526af18ca1611bf5d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fine-Capitulation: +$15K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$7.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$7.1K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$15K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Cavaliers @ 34¢ | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $3.8K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Cavaliers @ 43¢ | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Cavaliers @ 46¢ | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $4.5K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Broncos @ 36¢ | Rams vs. Broncos ↗ | $4.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?