Caring-Memory

0x13f0bcec1e2e60ec9acc3bee4d2da2fe9694a50f

Skill vs luck

Caring-Memory on Polymarket: 14 settled bets · won 93% (95% range 69%–99%) · profit −$1.5K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

Post on X Telegram WhatsApp Email

Cite: Hopium Games, “Caring-Memory: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x13f0bcec1e2e60ec9acc3bee4d2da2fe9694a50f. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Caring-Memory: −$1.5K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 93% (95% range 69%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$1.5K

return −4.9%

Settled bets

$31K staked

Won

92.9%

95% range 69%–99%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 14 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 5: +$29
Sep 5 – Sep 21: +$161
Sep 21 – Oct 7: +$180
Oct 7 – Oct 24: −$1.9K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗	$2.9K
Oct 21	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	$2.0K
Oct 5	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	$4.5K
Oct 3	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	$4.5K
Oct 3	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	$1.8K
Oct 2	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	$4.5K
Sep 29	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	$1.1K
Sep 21	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	$1.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed