Sorrowful-Outrage
Skill vs luck
Sorrowful-Outrage on Polymarket: 27 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 19%–52%) · profit +$259. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sorrowful-Outrage: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x11eb0a1c37d89926f9820885f0677c7e8eed50cb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sorrowful-Outrage: +$259 on 27 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 19%–52%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$1
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$479
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$46
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$264
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Over
@ 79¢
Middlesbrough FC vs. Cardiff City FC: O/U 4.5 |
Middlesbrough FC vs. Cardiff City FC: O/U 4.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Over
@ 74¢
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 |
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 |
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Over
@ 91¢
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 |
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Ulsan HD FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995: O/U 2.5 |
Ulsan HD FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995: O/U 2.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 15 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
BG Pathum United vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5 |
BG Pathum United vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Paide Linnameeskond vs. Tartu JK Tammeka: O/U 2.5 |
Paide Linnameeskond vs. Tartu JK Tammeka: O/U 2.5 | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?