Organic-Bustle-Lumberman
Skill vs luck
Organic-Bustle-Lumberman on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit +$79. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Organic-Bustle-Lumberman: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x11bc9a8d87103fd2a95f87733dd41362fc2c9e66. Data CC BY 4.0.
Organic-Bustle-Lumberman: +$79 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$79
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL Kaitlin Quevedo
@ 99.9¢
Guangzhou Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sofia Kenin |
Guangzhou Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sofia Kenin | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Federico Cina
@ 99.9¢
Brest: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina |
Brest: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina | $1.6K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Federico Cina
@ 97¢
Brest: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina |
Brest: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina | $2.8K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-10-25? |
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-10-25? | $1.3K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?