Actual-Promise
Skill vs luck
Actual-Promise on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$18. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Actual-Promise: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x11963e4f3548c5cbdcce3a62f9ff6b42975efe97. Data CC BY 4.0.
Actual-Promise: −$18 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$18
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL LYON @ 99.9¢ | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $11K |
| Oct 23 | SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | Cavaliers vs. 76ers ↗ | $6.8K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?