Defensive-Transcript-Smog
Skill vs luck
Defensive-Transcript-Smog on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Defensive-Transcript-Smog: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0b4668e22ad5674c8017f0b3f4f6a8f3e26f13f4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Defensive-Transcript-Smog: −$1.3K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY G2 @ 54¢ | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B ↗ | $1.9K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 40¢
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) | $1.3K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.