Elated-Lentil

0x0997f4b1f822423c65907c57963fe7191e1ec9f6

Skill vs luck

Elated-Lentil on Polymarket: 27 settled bets · won 89% (95% range 72%–96%) · profit −$3.4K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Elated-Lentil: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0997f4b1f822423c65907c57963fe7191e1ec9f6. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Elated-Lentil: −$3.4K on 27 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 89% (95% range 72%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$3.4K

return −2.7%

Settled bets

$126K staked

Won

88.9%

95% range 72%–96%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 27 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 5: −$1.0K
Sep 5 – Sep 22: −$2.7K
Sep 22 – Oct 8: +$304
Oct 8 – Oct 25: +$80

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.9% (2,417 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗	$3.9K
Oct 5	BUY Down @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	$6.6K
Oct 3	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	$1.2K
Oct 2	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	$4.5K
Sep 24	BUY Up @ 97¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	$2.5K
Sep 23	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	$3.0K
Sep 22	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	$1.7K
Sep 18	BUY Up @ 87¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	$1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792911646, computed 2026-10-25 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792911646 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed