Severe-Variability
Skill vs luck
Severe-Variability on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$297. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Severe-Variability: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x093129c8e71edd0f0b73f5befd096b29f51e769a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Severe-Variability: +$297 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$297
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? |
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | $1.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY No @ 86¢ | Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? ↗ | $1.8K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?