Reflecting-Championship
Skill vs luck
Reflecting-Championship on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$11K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Reflecting-Championship: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x07fb113c9fcb549ceaee69b137e0ee6e959c4696. Data CC BY 4.0.
Reflecting-Championship: −$11K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$11K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? ↗ | $21K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Barcelona
@ 55¢
Barcelona vs. Zalgiris Kaunas |
Barcelona vs. Zalgiris Kaunas | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Novak Djokovic @ 29¢ | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz ↗ | $9.9K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.