Impressive-Mangle
Skill vs luck
Impressive-Mangle on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–49%) · profit −$3.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Impressive-Mangle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x071cf644c603b43e352e52bec668b82b7b44bab9. Data CC BY 4.0.
Impressive-Mangle: −$3.0K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–49%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$2.9K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$78
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 15 | SELL Yes
@ 93¢
Will KAA Gent win on 2026-10-15? |
Will KAA Gent win on 2026-10-15? | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 56¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Scotland win on 2026-10-06? | $1.3K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 52¢
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-02? |
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-02? | $1.7K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?