Jolly-Salt
Skill vs luck
Jolly-Salt on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$1.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Jolly-Salt: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x068444b78f16073c23d111bd1114c33856ceba27. Data CC BY 4.0.
Jolly-Salt: +$1.6K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$65
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes @ 62¢ | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes
@ 93¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? |
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | $2.7K |
| Oct 29 | SELL Yes
@ 43¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? |
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? | $1.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Yes
@ 87¢
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? |
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? | $1.0K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? |
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | $3.7K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes
@ 87¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? |
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | $4.7K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? | $3.1K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.