Frail-Painter
Skill vs luck
Frail-Painter on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$1.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Frail-Painter: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x04e39fb018bfbc273b65c98a8f55e50aed60606b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Frail-Painter: +$1.6K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$1.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 60¢ | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 62¢ | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 64¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-17? |
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-17? | $1.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?