Unlucky-Begonia
Skill vs luck
Unlucky-Begonia on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 17% (95% range 3%–56%) · profit −$10K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unlucky-Begonia: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x01af8bb6abbcff287e8a726a1c5f39dd0b427bc2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unlucky-Begonia: −$10K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 17% (95% range 3%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$4
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$10K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY New Zealand @ 87¢ | India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India ↗ | $7.8K |
| Oct 29 | SELL England
@ 99.9¢
England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England |
England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England | $11K |
| Oct 20 | BUY England
@ 83¢
England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England |
England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England | $11K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.