Willing-Referendum
Skill vs luck
Willing-Referendum on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$36K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Willing-Referendum: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xfb3efff897ca857afb06ad1f80a670f49f11a19a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Willing-Referendum: −$36K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$36K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Kings @ 51¢ | Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) ↗ | $22K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Jazz @ 50¢ | Spread: Lakers (-6.5) ↗ | $11K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Under
@ 55¢
Melbourne United vs. Sydney Kings: O/U 193.5 |
Melbourne United vs. Sydney Kings: O/U 193.5 | $2.6K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?