Taut-Exception
Skill vs luck
Taut-Exception on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit −$14K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Taut-Exception: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf93cd138b491dc2b9923a62e53077a3f041ce7c2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Taut-Exception: −$14K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$14K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 57¢
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw? |
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw? | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 74¢
New York Red Bulls vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to Score |
New York Red Bulls vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to Score | $3.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Over @ 66¢ | Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Over
@ 52¢
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5 |
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Over
@ 63¢
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 |
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 | $10K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 54¢
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to Score |
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to Score | $2.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?