Insecure-South
Skill vs luck
Insecure-South on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit +$107. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Insecure-South: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf8844c7b9364869dd77ae2d71bfeb92c26489b6e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Insecure-South: +$107 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$294
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$401
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Cavaliers @ 81¢ | Nets vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B | $1.4K |
| Oct 22 | BUY TheMongolz
@ 99¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TheMongolz - Map 3 Winner |
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TheMongolz - Map 3 Winner | $1.5K |
| Sep 28 | SELL MIBR fe
@ 90¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Zetta Games (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Zetta Games (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage | $2.6K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?