Single-Challenge
Skill vs luck
Single-Challenge on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$747. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Single-Challenge: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf80e74bc34e0c1be6d4352d6edebb710e6602af8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Single-Challenge: −$747 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$371
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 52¢ | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 15 | SELL No
@ 86¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | $2.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 44¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | $2.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 49¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? |
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | $1.1K |
| Sep 27 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? |
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | $1.1K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Hike
@ 74¢
What will be the next Fed rate change? |
What will be the next Fed rate change? | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?