Crushing-Perception
Skill vs luck
Crushing-Perception on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–49%) · profit −$10. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Crushing-Perception: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf7e3efdd5507857b466c1922a7b9bfe239f922cb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Crushing-Perception: −$10 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–49%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$1
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- −$4
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$5
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 15 | SELL Pistons
@ 99.9¢
Pistons vs. Timberwolves |
Pistons vs. Timberwolves | $3.8K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Rybakina
@ 99.83¢
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5) |
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5) | $2.2K |
| Aug 29 | SELL Legacy @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?