Impure-Forum
Skill vs luck
Impure-Forum on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$3.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Impure-Forum: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf704bd6748077f976cca0c7a74a87d12fc5abed4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Impure-Forum: −$3.6K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$202
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$3.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 43¢
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-10-24? |
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-10-24? | $1.6K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Cavaliers @ 77¢ | Nets vs. Cavaliers ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Lorenzo Musetti @ 71¢ | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti ↗ | $2.7K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Up
@ 87¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | $1.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?