Ornery-Equity-Bolt
Skill vs luck
Ornery-Equity-Bolt on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 17% (95% range 3%–56%) · profit −$2.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ornery-Equity-Bolt: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf66d0bd209ce4ba28a575a4c9d1398a768b1c570. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ornery-Equity-Bolt: −$2.1K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 17% (95% range 3%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$2.0K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$97
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Nemiga
@ 57¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | SELL BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 24 | SELL MOUZ
@ 60¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 20 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-20? |
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-20? | $5.2K |
| Oct 15 | SELL Aurora Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP - Map 1 Winner | $2.7K |
| Oct 5 | BUY PARIVISION @ 59¢ | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage ↗ | $2.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?