Mean-Cesspool
Skill vs luck
Mean-Cesspool on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Mean-Cesspool: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf4218246dfefc5bdce904a73b2ec4d8366f5cff4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Mean-Cesspool: −$1.5K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$528
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$2.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | BUY Pacers @ 50¢ | Spread: Pacers (-3.5) ↗ | $2.0K |
| Aug 29 | BUY Chicago Sky
@ 51¢
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) |
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) | $1.5K |
| Aug 27 | BUY FC Red Bull Salzburg
@ 56¢
Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5) |
Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-08-23? |
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-08-23? | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?