Moist-Chicken-Recovery
Skill vs luck
Moist-Chicken-Recovery on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$16K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Moist-Chicken-Recovery: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf2e078fe373abe771dd4b5d33f79489fa7e277f0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Moist-Chicken-Recovery: +$16K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$16K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL Semen Pankin @ 99.9¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $14K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Semen Pankin @ 95¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Semen Pankin @ 97¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $3.8K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 82¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $8.7K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 83¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $9.5K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 82¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $15K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 81¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $9.6K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 81¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $19K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?