Stiff-Clearance-Calculation
Skill vs luck
Stiff-Clearance-Calculation on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$120. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Stiff-Clearance-Calculation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf259a107f122314b19c1fed9f1619839230463c5. Data CC BY 4.0.
Stiff-Clearance-Calculation: +$120 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$120
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Yulia Putintseva @ 96¢ | Pan Pacific Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Maria Sakkari ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Maya Joint @ 99.9¢ | Pan Pacific Open: Maya Joint vs Sorana Cirstea ↗ | $5.2K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?