Knowledgeable-Welfare
Skill vs luck
Knowledgeable-Welfare on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$831. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Knowledgeable-Welfare: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xefeeff14a211101f41bf94ce636151e04654d2b3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Knowledgeable-Welfare: +$831 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$831
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $3.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Spirit @ 79¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Team Yandex @ 97¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 22 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 79¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Team Spirit @ 90¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.2K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?