Favorite-Sniffle
Skill vs luck
Favorite-Sniffle on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit −$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Favorite-Sniffle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe839e7fe9cbd0997200c83d0fb77e7c290a10a9d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Favorite-Sniffle: −$1.8K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$1.9K
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$112
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$65
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Daria Kasatkina @ 94¢ | Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Daria Kasatkina ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Maxime Janvier @ 91¢ | Cassis: Maxime Janvier vs Thomas Fancutt ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 65¢ | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Aug 26 | SELL Elena Pridankina @ 90¢ | US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Rebecca Marino ↗ | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?