Rectangular-Shootdown
Skill vs luck
Rectangular-Shootdown on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 7%–59%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rectangular-Shootdown: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe80c3e22d5307c0b28586d40de00719e8113f3e6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rectangular-Shootdown: −$1.3K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 7%–59%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$2.0K
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$711
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY fnatic @ 42¢ | Counter-Strike: fnatic vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 12 | SELL Team LEISURE
@ 99¢
Counter-Strike: Regnum4Games vs Team LEISURE (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Regular Season |
Counter-Strike: Regnum4Games vs Team LEISURE (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Regular Season | $1.0K |
| Oct 11 | SELL DENDELE CS
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs Imperial (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs Imperial (+1.5) | $1.7K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Imperial
@ 97¢
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs NRG (BO3) - FRAG University Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs NRG (BO3) - FRAG University Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Maryville University
@ 49¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 3 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Maryville University
@ 46¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Sep 18 | BUY
@ 20¢
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs BBL (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs AND Counter-Strike: MIBR vs NRG (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs AND LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs BBL (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs AND Counter-Strike: MIBR vs NRG (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs AND LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs | $4.1K |
| Sep 18 | BUY FURIA @ 42¢ | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs ↗ | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?