Surprised-Instrument
Skill vs luck
Surprised-Instrument on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$2.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Surprised-Instrument: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe699f5ceb43bd659909e4ae8047d0d14a0ca8dc2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Surprised-Instrument: −$2.2K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$2.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 28¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY
@ 5¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25? AND Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-28? AND Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-10-27? |
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25? AND Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-28? AND Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-10-27? | $1.9K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 28¢ | Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 29¢ | Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 23 | BUY
@ 10¢
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-24? AND Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25? AND Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-24? AND Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw? |
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-24? AND Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25? AND Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-24? AND Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw? | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY
@ 43¢
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Atletico Petroleos de Luanda win on 2026-10-23? AND Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-10-23? AND Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-23? AND Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-10-23? |
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Atletico Petroleos de Luanda win on 2026-10-23? AND Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-10-23? AND Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-23? AND Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-10-23? | $1.5K |
| Oct 22 | BUY
@ 51¢
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-22? |
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22? AND Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-22? | $2.4K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?