Belated-Realm
Skill vs luck
Belated-Realm on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 46% (95% range 21%–72%) · profit +$9.9K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Belated-Realm: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe5b70fd855af9258d9463992e4f1ed7987905ee3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Belated-Realm: +$9.9K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 21%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$16K
- Oct 7 – Oct 23
- −$5.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | Cavaliers vs. 76ers ↗ | $31K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Kings @ 48¢ | Spread: Clippers (-4.5) ↗ | $21K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Jazz @ 47¢ | Jazz vs. Grizzlies ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 20 | BUY 76ers @ 38¢ | 76ers vs. Knicks ↗ | $29K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Nebraska
@ 51¢
Spread: Indiana (-8.5) |
Spread: Indiana (-8.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Under
@ 45¢
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 |
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | $29K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Jets
@ 37¢
Jets vs. Bears |
Jets vs. Bears | $3.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Jets
@ 37¢
Jets vs. Bears |
Jets vs. Bears | $3.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?