Darling-Afterthought-Gambling

0xe53b7c865a0c36e6ee8ff6b73749c61ff85da526

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Darling-Afterthought-Gambling: +$2.9K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 36%–80%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.9K
return +10.0%
Settled bets
15
$29K staked
Won
60.0%
95% range 36%–80%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 25 – Oct 13
+$2.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6% (2,332 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 12 BUY Islanders @ 67¢
Canucks vs. Islanders
Canucks vs. Islanders $4.2K
Oct 12 BUY Canadiens @ 57¢
Sabres vs. Canadiens
Sabres vs. Canadiens $1.4K
Oct 12 BUY Blue Jackets @ 54¢
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets $2.8K
Oct 11 BUY Maria Sakkari @ 61¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maria Sakkari vs Donna Vekic
Wuhan Tennis Open: Maria Sakkari vs Donna Vekic $1.5K
Oct 11 BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 54¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez
Wuhan Tennis Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez $1.8K
Oct 10 BUY Utah @ 52¢
Utah vs. Sabres
Utah vs. Sabres $1.0K
Oct 10 BUY Over @ 55¢
Predators vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
Predators vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 $1.0K
Oct 10 BUY Devils @ 50¢
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
Spread: Devils (-1.5) $2.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791874803, computed 2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791874803 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed