Fixed-Commission

0xe156c859fc8a3aace3f2f981459d8f989eea134b

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Fixed-Commission: +$7.2K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 24%–76%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$7.2K
return +32.6%
Settled bets
10
$22K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 24%–76%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 1 – Oct 16
+$7.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.7% (2,012 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 15 BUY Yes @ 33¢
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? $4.8K
Oct 15 BUY Team WE @ 44¢ LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs ↗ $4.8K
Oct 14 BUY Suns @ 24¢
Suns vs. Spurs
Suns vs. Spurs $1.8K
Oct 14 BUY Pistons @ 40¢
Pistons vs. Timberwolves
Pistons vs. Timberwolves $2.0K
Oct 14 BUY Hornets @ 27¢
Hornets vs. Celtics
Hornets vs. Celtics $2.1K
Oct 13 BUY Yes @ 24¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-13?
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-13? $2.5K
Oct 6 BUY Under @ 52¢
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5 $2.4K
Oct 6 BUY Over @ 52¢
Pelicans vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5
Pelicans vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5 $2.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1792134019, computed 2026-10-16 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792134019 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed